Sometimes when scientific papers are published after an event it’s because researchers have been able to piece things together using new data they collected after the eruption started. This is called Hindcasting.
Hindcasting (or retrospectively forecasting an event after the fact), is a common technique used by volcanologists. It can be used to identify monitoring signals that could, looking back, help to identify the start of the event, its end, or the style of an eruption using new information available. It is time-consuming to pick through the new data to identify signals which could help to forecast future events. So although we know more about Tajogaite volcano now, this research was not available at the time to help inform Palmeros.
From the 2021 La Palma eruption, we investigate four publications that shed new light on the eruption using hindcasting. Two of these (satellite gas and ground deformation data) are used to hindcast the end of the eruption, by analysing how their values decreased throughout the eruption.
The other two identify new evidence of magma movement prior to the eruption. A petrological study (rock analysis) identifies a reactivation of the system 10-15 years before the eruption, whilst a seismic study identifies rapid upwards magma movement days before the eruption.
All of the studies provide valuable analysis which may be useful in understanding future eruptions on La Palma.
Eruptions can be hotbeds for new discoveries, but the rush to publish should go hand in hand with outreach. Effective communication to affected communities is key to put these findings in context and avoid causing distress or confusion locally.
You can read our full report in English or Spanish in our Opinion Pieces here: https://geotenerife.com/hindsight-is-20-20/
~ GeoTenerife Team
Sometimes when scientific papers are published after an event it’s because researchers have been able to piece things together using new data they collected after the eruption started. This is called Hindcasting.
Hindcasting (or retrospectively forecasting an event after the fact), is a common technique used by volcanologists. It can be used to identify monitoring signals that could, looking back, help to identify the start of the event, its end, or the style of an eruption using new information available. It is time-consuming to pick through the new data to identify signals which could help to forecast future events. So although we know more about Tajogaite volcano now, this research was not available at the time to help inform Palmeros.
From the 2021 La Palma eruption, we investigate four publications that shed new light on the eruption using hindcasting. Two of these (satellite gas and ground deformation data) are used to hindcast the end of the eruption, by analysing how their values decreased throughout the eruption.
The other two identify new evidence of magma movement prior to the eruption. A petrological study (rock analysis) identifies a reactivation of the system 10-15 years before the eruption, whilst a seismic study identifies rapid upwards magma movement days before the eruption.
All of the studies provide valuable analysis which may be useful in understanding future eruptions on La Palma.
Eruptions can be hotbeds for new discoveries, but the rush to publish should go hand in hand with outreach. Effective communication to affected communities is key to put these findings in context and avoid causing distress or confusion locally.
You can read our full report in English or Spanish in our Opinion Pieces here: https://geotenerife.com/hindsight-is-20-20/
~ GeoTenerife Team
